Fewer Than 2,000 Accounts Took Two-Thirds Of Polymarket's Profits, Study Finds

A Wall Street Journal study of trades on Polymarket and Kalshi found that out of 1.6 million Polymarket accounts examined, fewer than 2,000, just 0.1%, collected 67% of all profits, according to Kiplinger.

Kalshi told the Journal it sees roughly 2.9 unprofitable users for every profitable one in a recent month of data.

The imbalance traces partly to professional traders using AI tools that can analyze a bet, react to new information within seconds, and place or close wagers around the clock, advantages ordinary bettors don't have.

Separately, the New York Times reported that Brazilians have lost about $7 billion gambling online, including on prediction markets, with the poorest bettors accumulating the deepest losses as the country's presidential election approaches.

Polymarket and Kalshi have avoided state gambling regulation by arguing their event contracts fall solely under the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a position the CFTC has backed.